Macro Review Q2

Here is a short summary of the Macro Review from the second quarter of the year with a focus on the investment world.

If you would like to read more about this review please download the document pack.

Macro & Manager Review Pack Q2 2025.pdf

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The document provides a detailed overview of the financial performance, market trends, and investment strategies of Glacier Invest and Bateleur Capital for the second quarter of 2025.

Glacier Invest Overview

1. Global Market Trends:

   • Global economic growth is slowing but remains above historical averages. ​

   • Inflation is declining globally, though the U.S. and Japan face upward pressures. ​

   • Central banks (excluding the U.S. Federal Reserve) are cutting interest rates. ​

2. South African Market:

   • SA economic growth remains weak due to low investment spending. ​

   • Inflation is trending downward, and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has started cutting interest rates.

   • Structural reforms are underway, but fiscal debt remains a challenge. ​

3. Asset Class Performance:

   • SA equities and bonds showed mixed returns, with SA equity sectors like financials and industrials performing well.

   • Global equities, particularly U.S. and European stocks, remain expensive relative to historical averages. ​

4. Investment Positioning:

   • Tactical asset allocation adjustments were made, increasing exposure to SA equities while reducing longer-dated bonds.

Bateleur Capital Overview

Bateleur Capital is an independent investment firm managing R18 billion in assets. Their Q2 2025 review highlights their investment strategies, fund performance, and market outlook. ​

1. Fund Performance:

   • The Flexible Fund delivered a 4.4% return YTD, driven by gains in precious metals and select equities.

   • The SA Equity Fund returned 6.9% YTD, underperforming broader indices like the JSE ALSI (16.7%).

2. Key Investment Strategies:

   • Increased exposure to domestic equities, focusing on undervalued stocks like Remgro, Bidvest, and AVI. ​

   • Reduced exposure to longer-dated domestic bonds due to risks associated with South Africa’s fiscal challenges. ​

   • Maintained a diversified foreign equity portfolio, including U.S. tech giants (Amazon, Google) and European industrials (Airbus, Vinci). ​

3. Sector Highlights:

   • Precious metals (gold and platinum) are experiencing elevated profitability, but sustainability is questioned. ​

   • SA-focused companies face challenges due to weak GDP growth and foreign investor outflows. ​

4. Macro Outlook:

   • U.S. economic growth is slowing amid policy uncertainty and tariff impacts. ​

   • China’s economy shows signs of stabilization, but consumer confidence remains low. ​

   • Europe is benefiting from fiscal spending and supportive monetary policies. ​

Key Takeaways

• Geopolitical Tensions: Global and local political instability continues to impact investor sentiment. ​

• Economic Growth: While growth is slowing globally, opportunities exist in resilient sectors like bonds and equities. ​

• Investment Strategy: Both Glacier Invest and Bateleur Capital are focusing on tactical asset allocation to navigate market uncertainties.

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Conclusion

Despite challenges like geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, both Glacier Invest and Bateleur Capital remain confident in the ability to deliver strong investment returns. ​ Their strategies emphasize diversification, tactical adjustments, and identifying undervalued opportunities in both local and global markets.

For more information or how to access these investments please feel free to contact us.