Macro Review Q1

Here is a short summary of the Macro Review from the first quarter of the year with a focus on the investment world.

If you would like to read more about this review please download the document pack.

Glacier Invest Macro Review Pack - Q1 2025.pdf

Download PDF • 10.83MB

🌍 What’s Happening in the World Economy?

• Global markets had a rocky quarter. The US, once the star of the show, is now fading a bit. New tariffs and trade tensions (hello, Trade Wars 2.0!) are stirring up uncertainty.

• South Africa is dealing with its own challenges: budget issues, political tension, and a weaker GNU (Government of National Unity) outlook.

• Inflation is still a concern—especially in the US—while global growth is slowing but still positive (Q1 global GDP at 2.2%).

  
  

📉 How Did Investments Perform?

In rand terms (ZAR), here’s how things looked over the past 3 months:

• SA Stocks (All Share Index): Up 5.94%

• SA Bonds: Modest gains around 0.7%

• Global Stocks: Down ~4%, hit hard by growth worries and tariffs

• Gold: Did well as investors looked for safety

• SA Listed Property: Down -3.5% – struggling a bit

  
  

🔥 Key Trends & Risks

• US "exceptionalism" is fading – meaning it’s no longer outperforming the rest of the world like it used to.

• Tariff troubles are real: Countries are retaliating, impacting trade and prices globally.

• Inflation pressures are rising, especially in the US, from wage growth and higher costs.

• China is slowing too, especially in property and exports.

• South Africa is facing budget and political drama that could affect investment confidence.

  
  

📊 What Is Being Considered?

• No major recession expected, but risks are rising.

• Interest rates might start coming down—good for bonds.

• Equities and bonds can still perform, but expect volatility.

• Valuations in global markets are starting to correct, especially in the US.

  
  

🧭 Investment Positioning

Here’s what adjustments are being made:

• Increased allocation to SA equities and bonds (valuations are attractive)

• Still cautious on global property and cash

• Watching inflation-linked bonds to hedge inflation risk

• More selective in emerging markets and developed market equities

  
  

💡 In a Nutshell

• Markets are volatile.

• Inflation remains a worry.

• SA is risky but offers value.

• Diversification is key.

• Long-term outlook is still constructive—despite the short-term noise.